Despite starting with ground that was the heaviest in thirty years, the opening day of the Festival provided no major shocks, with the biggest priced winner Summerville Boy at 9/1. Although lots of horses have been aimed at the Festival with quick ground in mind, the fact they are racing on winter ground means that recent form, especially those that ran on Trials day, is vital when considering your selections. The second day looks tough though, with some extremely competitive handicaps as well as a fascinating Champion Chase so the bookmakers may get some profits back!
Ballymore
The talking horse of the meeting is the unbeaten Samcro and this year he has treated his rivals with disdain in three starts over hurdles. However, Cheltenham represents a new test for him, first time travelling over, the intense atmosphere and his strongest opposition to date. While he probably will win, yesterday’s pain for connections with Apples Jade showed that there is no such thing as a certainty in racing. Amongst the opposition, Next Destination representing team Mullins and Walsh is also unbeaten in three starts over hurdles and while not as flashy, he does not have that much to find on the bare form. That pair unsurprisingly dominate the market which leave plenty of each way options and Vision Des Flos is the interesting one for me. He changed hands for £270,000 after winning the bumper at Punchestown and while he initially disappointed over hurdles, wind surgery and the Tizzard team hitting form saw him absolutely bolt up at Exeter last time out. He goes on the ground and at 16/1, he could produce a shock.
RSA
Although Bryony Frost and Black Corton have been a wonderful story for racing this winter, this division is where the Irish have the stronger hand and he may come up short. Presenting Percy was an impressive winner of the Pertemps here last season and has taken well to fences, winning a valuable handicap and ran a cracker behind Gold Cup candidate Our Duke last time out so deserves to be favourite. Monalee came out on top at the Dublin Festival beating Al Boum Photo in a bunch finish and Henry De Bromhead felt he will come on for the run but he needs to as Presenting Percy has shown more so far and he is our likely winner.
Champion Chase
This could be an absolute cracker with both Min and Douvan taking on Altior. Nicky Henderson’s horse is unbeaten in twelve starts over obstacles and although he missed the first half of the season due to a wind op, he was seriously impressive on his return at Newbury. It was only touch and go whether he would reappear there so it is likely he will improve plenty and he certainly sets the standard. Although there was a last-minute scare when he had puss in his foot on Monday, it happens quite often and that would not concern me. The conundrum is Douvan and what he can achieve on his first run since suffering a pelvis injury in this contest twelve months ago. Ruby has chosen him over Min and I think that was a simple decision as on formbook as Min needs to improve and Douvan looked unbeatable at his best last year. However, as Faugheen showed yesterday, once a horse has picked up an injury, they rarely get back to there very best and from my own experience with pelvic injuries, horses often return around 7-10lb below their previous level. Therefore I feel this is best left to Altior and he may be followed home by Politologue who was unsuited by making the pace at Newbury last time and he is the type to achieve most against high class opposition and he has improved plenty this season.
Other Races
Coral Cup is a minefield but this year’s Lanzarote at Kempton was an extremely competitive contest and has worked out well so James Bowen can get a Cheltenham winner with William Henry. The class of The Last Samuri could tell in the Cross Country. Act of Valour can enhance Paul Nicholls good record in the Fred Winter. Acey Milan has been impressive in his bumpers and his course form could be crucial and gain compensation for Antony Honeyball’s narrow loss with Ms Parfois yesterday.
Selections
1:30 Vision Des Flos
2:10 Presenting Percy
2:50 William Henry
3:30 Altior (nap)
4:10 The Last Samurai
4:50 Act Of Valour
5:30 Acey Milan